Kaufmann Abstract

“Sacralization by Stealth?: The Religious Consequences of Low Fertility in Europe”

The advent of chronically low fertility in Europe will ultimately lead to a reversal of the secularization process. Religious Europeans have higher fertility than their secular counterparts. Fundamentalist or orthodox religious groups are more fertile than moderates or nominals. Women are also disproportionately religious, which affects religious growth. What of religious boundaries? Among natives, fundamentalists and charismatics are explicitly oriented against the secular 'threat'. We already see an end to religious decline in the most secular countries. In addition, immigrants tend to be both more fertile and more religious than Europe's natives. Immigrant fertility is falling toward host levels, but secularization - especially for Muslims, Sikhs and Hindus - is negligible in the second generation. Ethnic minority status reinforces resistance to secularism. The outcome of this process will be a reversal of historic secularization patterns in Europe between 2020 and 2075, depending on our assumptions. This paper, in addition to summarizing current demographic trends, sets forth the latest projections for the size of the secular, Muslim, Christian and 'Other' population in several countries to 2030, 2050 and 2100. It ends with a discussion of some political pathways which flow out from these developments.